The fourth-ranked San Diego State Aztecs will head to Boise State on Sunday afternoon to take on the 17-9 Broncos. Although Boise State has a small chance at winning this one, they are coming off a big win against Air Force and will try to keep that energy when they face the Aztecs.
The Aztecs have emerged as one of the best teams in the NCAA. This is a team that finished fourth in the Mountain West last season with an overall record of 21-14. San Diego State has changed the narrative this season and is currently 25-0, an unblemished record, and is looking to keep it that way.
Boise State has played great recently, going 4-1 in their last five games, and although they aren’t San Diego State, they have slowed flashes of quality play throughout the year. Most likely the Broncos won’t be able to upset the Aztecs, but there is still a chance they could cover the spread, let’s look at both squads heading into this contest and make our decision.
Buckin’ Broncos
Boise State has an offense that is quite impressive considering its 17-9 record. Averaging 76 points per game and second place in the Mountain West is a big improvement from their 13-20 record last season. The Broncos’ success this year could be accredited to better output on offense, which is mostly due to their guard Derrick Alston.
Alston is the Broncos leading scorer (18.4) and leads the team in assists per game (3.1), the great news is recently he’s been getting some help on offense. Against Nevada, Alex Hobbs came off the bench to score a career-high 24-points to help lead the Broncos to a 73-64 victory.
Along with Hobbs, Justinian Jessup has done his fair share of contributing, first tying the Mountain West record for three-pointers made in a career and then scoring 18-points to help secure a 74-57 win against Air Force.
Where the Broncos shine is against the spread at home, with a record of 10-2, Boise State looks like one of the better teams at covering the spread. They’ve gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven, but in their last game against the Aztecs, they weren’t able to cover the 11-point spread leaving little confidence in their ability to cover even a large spread against the Aztecs.
Aztecs pushing for No. 1 ranking
If you would’ve asked experts at the beginning of the season where they thought San Diego State would finish, I doubt many of them would say No. 1. Here we are, with the season coming to a close and the Aztecs sitting at No.4. If they’re able to pull off a win against another Mountain-West team, they’ll be in a good spot to rise in ranks.
What I like most about this Aztecs team is that there isn’t one singular star, it’s a collection of players that rise to every occasion, and so far, they’ve proven they can compete. What makes me slightly concerned for the Aztecs is that they haven’t played a single ranked team, which isn’t a concern now, but will be in the future.
What isn’t a concern is San Diego State’s defense, allowing only 58.4 points per game and ranking 5th in the country, it’s not hard to figure out why they’re undefeated.
The last time the Aztecs faced the Broncos was in early January, a game in which San Diego State demolished Boise State 83-65, covering the 11-point spread. If you were concerned about how the Aztecs perform against the spread on the road, I’m here to reassure you that you have no need to worry. With an ATS road record of 8-1, San Diego State will do just fine heading into Boise State.
Pick and Prediction
I like Boise State, and I feel like they are well on their way to becoming a solid team in the next couple of seasons. However, the Aztecs have been on fire on both offense and defense, and I don’t see them faltering on the road against the Broncos. This match will mirror their previous meeting when the Aztecs hosted and covered a large 11-point spread. Take the Aztecs -5.5.
