US Presidential Election Update, November 6:
Reports that are making the rounds this morning have it that, as it stands, Joe Biden’s win probability (and therefore bookmaker odds) has soared to its highest point since election day at 94.5%. This is a reflection of the fact that Biden needs only six electoral votes to win the election (as of the time of writing) and is rapidly closing the vote gap in two crucial swing states.
A Swift Turnaround
Following weeks ahead in the betting odds and national polls, things seemed to take a turn for the worse for Biden as he became the bookmakers’ underdog on the morning of Wednesday, November 4 (the day after votes were cast). At the time, it seemed that the powers that be had earlier underestimated Donald Trump’s penchant for overturning unfavorable situation. This wasn’t to last, however.
Here we are, almost three days from the close of voting and it seems that Biden’s place as the strong favorite in the run-up to the election was justified. Things have returned to the earlier status quo, meaning that Joe Biden now has what many deem an unassailable lead over his opponent, Donald Trump.
The Numbers
According to corroborated reports coming in from the Associated Press, Biden’s electoral vote count stands at 264, meaning that he needs just six votes to reach the 270 required for a majority and therefore, an election victory.
This set of events has caused Biden’s win probability to almost completely nullify that of his Republican opponent. As of early this morning, the European sportsbook Betfair is reporting odds of -2000 for Biden and +1700. These work out to a 94.5% implied chance for the former and a 5.5% implied chance for the latter. Remember that since this election is now basically a two-horse race, any percentage point lost by one candidate is almost certainly be added to that of the other.
At 9 pm on Wednesday, November 5, Biden had a 93.3% chance compared to Trump’s 6.7. This number rose to 93.6% compared to 6.4% by 11 pm. This is in stark contrast to Monday morning – or 24 hours before election day – when the odds looked different at 66.6% for Biden and 33.3% for Trump.
Trump Losing Ground
Ahead of the election, many political analysts were resolute in their assessment that the first candidate to win all or most of his party’s strongholds and flip a few swing states would emerge victoriously.
As it stands, Biden looks to be the one doing that. Although the current electoral college count has remained the same since yesterday, he’s gaining ground in Georgia (trailing by less than 2,000 votes to Trump) and doing the same in Pennsylvania (now behind by less than 25,000 votes). Importantly, only mail-in ballots are left to be counted in Pennsylvania – and reports state that most mail-in votes counted so far have favored Biden. If he manages to flip the keystone state by the time counting is done, he will become the next president by a luxurious margin.
As it turns out, Biden doesn’t need all 20 electoral votes from Pennsylvania. Yes, while turning a state whose mining and petroleum industries are crucial to the American economy would put his administration on the right footing, he could do with only a win at Nevada. Coincidentally, Nevada will give him the six electoral votes and carry him over the hump and into the white house.
The Outlook
Things don’t look good for Trump. Frankly, most insiders would be shocked if he won this election as things stand. This is because if Biden takes Nevada as projected, even a win for Trump in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alaska won’t be enough to even out the score.
